[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f145erle9dmink":3,"$fbwk2pqjjqsc7":43},{"item":4,"previous":31,"next":37},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"excerpt":9,"contentType":10,"featuredImage":11,"bannerImage":9,"body":12,"agentsBottomLine":13,"bodyImage":14,"isInfographic":15,"categories":16,"isVideo":15,"videoThumbnail":9,"videoSource":9,"publishedAt":29,"updatedAt":30},45410,"why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market","Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market","\u003Cp>There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years.\u003C\u002Fp>","","blog","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-Why-There-Won-t-Be-a-Recession-That-Tanks-the-Housing-Market.png","\u003Cp>There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.  \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.builderonline.com\u002Fdata-analysis\u002Fhow-the-election-and-unemployment-could-impact-the-2024-housing-market_c\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">According\u003C\u002Fa> to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at \u003Cem>LendingTree\u003C\u002Fem>, the economy’s pretty strong:\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cem>.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Cp>That might be why a \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Feconomy\u002Feconomic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">recent survey\u003C\u002Fa> from the \u003Cem>Wall Street Journal\u003C\u002Fem> shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (\u003Cem>see graph below\u003C\u002Fem>):\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png\" alt=\"a graph of the economic growth of the economy\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.macrotrends.net\u002Fcountries\u002FUSA\u002Funited-states\u002Funemployment-rate\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cem>Macrotrends\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>, the \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fnews.release\u002Fpdf\u002Fempsit.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cem>Bureau of Labor Statistics\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa> (BLS), and \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ftradingeconomics.com\u002Funited-states\u002Funemployment-rate#:~:text=Unemployment%20Rate%20in%20the%20United,percent%20in%20May%20of%201953.\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cem>Trading Economics\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (\u003Cem>see graph below\u003C\u002Fem>):\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png\" alt=\"a graph of a graph showing the number of employment rate\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (\u003Cem>shown in blue\u003C\u002Fem>).\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same \u003Cem>Wall Street Journal\u003C\u002Fem> \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Feconomy\u002Feconomic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">survey\u003C\u002Fa> to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (\u003Cem>see graph below\u003C\u002Fem>):\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-Unemployement-Expected-to-stay-below-5-percent.png\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-Unemployement-Expected-to-stay-below-5-percent.png\" alt=\"a graph of blue bars\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cp>Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240304\u002F20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png",false,[17,21,25],{"id":18,"name":19,"slug":20},7,"Foreclosures","foreclosures",{"id":22,"name":23,"slug":24},325,"Economy","economy",{"id":26,"name":27,"slug":28},327,"Forecasts","forecasts","2024-03-05T11:30:00Z","2024-04-11T20:12:21Z",{"id":32,"slug":33,"title":34,"featuredImage":35,"publishedAt":36,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},45056,"what-to-know-about-credit-scores-before-buying-a-home","What To Know About Credit Scores Before Buying a Home","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240229\u002F20240304-What-To-Know-About-Credit-Scores-Before-Buying-a-Home.png","2024-03-04T11:30:00Z",{"id":38,"slug":39,"title":40,"featuredImage":41,"publishedAt":42,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},45132,"why-access-is-so-important-when-selling-your-house","Why Access Is So Important When Selling Your House","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20240229\u002F20240306-Why-Access-Is-So-Important-When-Selling-Your-House.png","2024-03-06T11:30:00Z",[44,48,52,56,57,61,65,69,73,77,81,85,89,93,97,101,105,109,113,117,121,125,129,133,137,138,142,143,147,151],{"id":45,"name":46,"slug":47},1,"Uncategorized","uncategorized",{"id":49,"name":50,"slug":51},5,"For Buyers","buyers",{"id":53,"name":54,"slug":55},6,"For Sellers","sellers",{"id":18,"name":19,"slug":20},{"id":58,"name":59,"slug":60},8,"Infographics","infographics",{"id":62,"name":63,"slug":64},9,"Home Prices","home-prices",{"id":66,"name":67,"slug":68},11,"First-Time Buyers","first-time-buyers",{"id":70,"name":71,"slug":72},34,"Senior Market","senior-market",{"id":74,"name":75,"slug":76},35,"Mortgage Rates","mortgage-rates",{"id":78,"name":79,"slug":80},38,"Move-Up","move-up",{"id":82,"name":83,"slug":84},41,"For Sale by Owner","for-sale-by-owner",{"id":86,"name":87,"slug":88},42,"Featured","featured",{"id":90,"name":91,"slug":92},45,"New Construction","new-construction",{"id":94,"name":95,"slug":96},52,"Luxury \u002F Vacation","luxury--vacation",{"id":98,"name":99,"slug":100},53,"Rent vs. Buy","rent-vs-buy",{"id":102,"name":103,"slug":104},80,"Time-sensitive","time-sensitive",{"id":106,"name":107,"slug":108},81,"Outdated","outdated",{"id":110,"name":111,"slug":112},147,"Internal","internal",{"id":114,"name":115,"slug":116},148,"Do Not Autopost","do-not-autopost",{"id":118,"name":119,"slug":120},320,"Inventory","inventory",{"id":122,"name":123,"slug":124},321,"Agent Value","agent-value",{"id":126,"name":127,"slug":128},322,"Affordability","affordability",{"id":130,"name":131,"slug":132},323,"Buying Tips","buying-tips",{"id":134,"name":135,"slug":136},324,"Downsize","downsize",{"id":22,"name":23,"slug":24},{"id":139,"name":140,"slug":141},326,"Equity","equity",{"id":26,"name":27,"slug":28},{"id":144,"name":145,"slug":146},328,"Selling Tips","selling-tips",{"id":148,"name":149,"slug":150},339,"Expired\u002FWithdrawn\u002FCanceled","expiredwithdrawncanceled",{"id":152,"name":153,"slug":154},340,"Price It Right\u002FOverpricing","price-it-rightoverpricing"]