[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f341r039qxvf1b":3,"$fbwk2pqjjqsc7":31},{"item":4,"previous":19,"next":25},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"excerpt":9,"contentType":10,"featuredImage":11,"bannerImage":9,"body":12,"agentsBottomLine":13,"bodyImage":14,"isInfographic":15,"categories":16,"isVideo":15,"videoThumbnail":9,"videoSource":9,"publishedAt":17,"updatedAt":18},34928,"why-the-economy-wont-tank-the-housing-market","Why the Economy Won’t Tank the Housing Market","\u003Cp>If you’re worried about a coming recession, you’re not alone.\u003C\u002Fp>","","blog","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231129-Why-the-Economy-Wont-crash-the-housing-market.png","\u003Cp>If you’re worried about a coming recession, you’re not alone. Over the past couple of years, there’s been a lot of recession talk. And many people worry, if we do have one, it would cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket. Some even fear that a spike in unemployment would lead to a rash of \u003Ca href=\"\u002F2023\u002F10\u002F31\u002Fforeclosures-and-bankruptcies-wont-crash-the-housing-market\u002F\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">foreclosures\u003C\u002Fa> similar to what happened 15 years ago.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>However, the latest \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Feconomy\u002Fa-recession-is-no-longer-the-consensus-3ad0c3a3\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cem>Economic Forecasting Survey\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa> from the \u003Cem>Wall Street Journal\u003C\u002Fem> (WSJ) reveals that, for the first time in over a year, less than half (48%) of economists believe a recession will actually occur within the next year:\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy \u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cem>. . . \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cem>, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Cp>If over half of the experts no longer expect a recession within the next year, you might naturally think those same experts also don’t expect the unemployment rate to jump way up – and you’d be right. The graph below uses \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wsj.com\u002Feconomy\u002Feconomic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">data\u003C\u002Fa> from that same WSJ survey to show exactly what the economists project for the unemployment rate over the next three years (\u003Cem>see graph below\u003C\u002Fem>):\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231129-Unemployment-Projections-for-the-next-3-Years.png\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231129-Unemployment-Projections-for-the-next-3-Years.png\">\u003C\u002Fa> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>If those expert projections are correct, more people will lose their jobs in the upcoming year. And job losses of any kind are devastating for those people and their loved ones.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>However, the question here is: will there be enough job losses to cause a wave of foreclosures that will crash the housing market? Based on historical context from \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.macrotrends.net\u002Fcountries\u002FUSA\u002Funited-states\u002Funemployment-rate\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cem>Macrotrends\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa> and the \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bls.gov\u002Fnews.release\u002Fpdf\u002Fempsit.pdf\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cem>Bureau of Labor Statistics\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa> (BLS), the answer is no. That’s because the unemployment rate is currently near all-time lows (\u003Cem>see graph below\u003C\u002Fem>):\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231129-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231129-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png\">\u003C\u002Fa> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>As the orange bar in the graph shows, the average unemployment rate dating back to 1948 is 5.7%. The red bar shows, the last time the housing market crashed, in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the average unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those bars are much higher than the unemployment rate today (\u003Cem>shown in the blue bar\u003C\u002Fem>).\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Moving forward, projections show the unemployment rate is likely to stay beneath the 75-year average. And that means we won’t see a wave of foreclosures that would severely impact the housing market.\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cp>Most economists no longer expect a recession to occur in the next 12 months. That’s why they also don’t expect a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate that would lead to a rash of foreclosures and another \u003Ca href=\"\u002F2023\u002F09\u002F27\u002Fwhy-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon\u002F\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">housing market crash\u003C\u002Fa>. If you have questions about unemployment and its impact on the housing market, \u003Ca href=\"\u002F2023\u002F10\u002F30\u002Fa-real-estate-agent-helps-take-the-fear-out-of-the-market\u002F\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">let’s connect\u003C\u002Fa>.\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231129-Unemployment-Projections-for-the-next-3-Years.png",false,[],"2023-11-29T11:30:00Z","2023-12-12T16:30:14Z",{"id":20,"slug":21,"title":22,"featuredImage":23,"publishedAt":24,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},34906,"are-the-top-3-housing-market-questions-on-your-mind","Are the Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231128-Are-The-Top-3-Housing-Market-Questions-on-your-mind.png","2023-11-28T11:30:00Z",{"id":26,"slug":27,"title":28,"featuredImage":29,"publishedAt":30,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},34961,"is-owning-a-home-still-the-american-dream-for-younger-buyers","Is Owning a Home Still the American Dream for Younger Buyers?","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20231127\u002F20231130-Is-Owning-a-Home-Still-the-American-Dream-for-Younger-buyers.png","2023-11-30T16:00:00Z",[32,36,40,44,48,52,56,60,64,68,72,76,80,84,88,92,96,100,104,108,112,116,120,124,128,132,136,140,144,148],{"id":33,"name":34,"slug":35},1,"Uncategorized","uncategorized",{"id":37,"name":38,"slug":39},5,"For Buyers","buyers",{"id":41,"name":42,"slug":43},6,"For Sellers","sellers",{"id":45,"name":46,"slug":47},7,"Foreclosures","foreclosures",{"id":49,"name":50,"slug":51},8,"Infographics","infographics",{"id":53,"name":54,"slug":55},9,"Home Prices","home-prices",{"id":57,"name":58,"slug":59},11,"First-Time Buyers","first-time-buyers",{"id":61,"name":62,"slug":63},34,"Senior Market","senior-market",{"id":65,"name":66,"slug":67},35,"Mortgage Rates","mortgage-rates",{"id":69,"name":70,"slug":71},38,"Move-Up","move-up",{"id":73,"name":74,"slug":75},41,"For Sale by Owner","for-sale-by-owner",{"id":77,"name":78,"slug":79},42,"Featured","featured",{"id":81,"name":82,"slug":83},45,"New Construction","new-construction",{"id":85,"name":86,"slug":87},52,"Luxury \u002F Vacation","luxury--vacation",{"id":89,"name":90,"slug":91},53,"Rent vs. Buy","rent-vs-buy",{"id":93,"name":94,"slug":95},80,"Time-sensitive","time-sensitive",{"id":97,"name":98,"slug":99},81,"Outdated","outdated",{"id":101,"name":102,"slug":103},147,"Internal","internal",{"id":105,"name":106,"slug":107},148,"Do Not Autopost","do-not-autopost",{"id":109,"name":110,"slug":111},320,"Inventory","inventory",{"id":113,"name":114,"slug":115},321,"Agent Value","agent-value",{"id":117,"name":118,"slug":119},322,"Affordability","affordability",{"id":121,"name":122,"slug":123},323,"Buying Tips","buying-tips",{"id":125,"name":126,"slug":127},324,"Downsize","downsize",{"id":129,"name":130,"slug":131},325,"Economy","economy",{"id":133,"name":134,"slug":135},326,"Equity","equity",{"id":137,"name":138,"slug":139},327,"Forecasts","forecasts",{"id":141,"name":142,"slug":143},328,"Selling Tips","selling-tips",{"id":145,"name":146,"slug":147},339,"Expired\u002FWithdrawn\u002FCanceled","expiredwithdrawncanceled",{"id":149,"name":150,"slug":151},340,"Price It Right\u002FOverpricing","price-it-rightoverpricing"]