[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f1nfzmqvlh9bfx":3,"$ffeh0925h8cuz":39,"$f2emv3tus0uf1":43,"$fbwk2pqjjqsc7":47},{"item":4,"previous":27,"next":33},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"excerpt":9,"contentType":10,"featuredImage":11,"bannerImage":9,"body":12,"agentsBottomLine":13,"bodyImage":14,"isInfographic":15,"categories":16,"isVideo":15,"videoThumbnail":9,"videoSource":9,"publishedAt":25,"updatedAt":26},4248,"why-todays-housing-inventory-proves-the-market-isnt-headed-for-a-crash","Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash","Whether or not you owned a home in 2008, you likely remember the housing crash that took place back then. And news about an \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F07\u002F07\u002Fwhat-does-an-economic-slowdown-mean-for-the-housing-market\u002F\">economic slowdown\u003C\u002Fa> happening today may bring all those concerns back to the surface. While those feelings are understandable, data can help reassure you the situation today is nothing like it was in 2008.","","blog","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F23093855\u002F20220824-KCM-Share.jpg","Whether or not you owned a home in 2008, you likely remember the housing crash that took place back then. And news about an \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F07\u002F07\u002Fwhat-does-an-economic-slowdown-mean-for-the-housing-market\u002F\">economic slowdown\u003C\u002Fa> happening today may bring all those concerns back to the surface. While those feelings are understandable, data can help reassure you the situation today is nothing like it was in 2008.\u003C!--more-->\r\n\r\nOne of the key reasons why the market \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F12\u002Fwhy-experts-say-the-housing-market-wont-crash-infographic\u002F\">won’t crash\u003C\u002Fa> this time is the current undersupply of inventory. Housing supply comes from three key places:\r\n\u003Cul>\r\n \t\u003Cli>Current homeowners putting their homes up for sale\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n \t\u003Cli>Newly built homes coming onto the market\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n \t\u003Cli>Distressed properties (short sales or foreclosures)\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\nFor the market to crash, you’d have to make a case for an oversupply of inventory headed to the market, and the numbers just don’t support that. So, here’s a deeper look at where inventory is coming from today to help prove why the housing market isn’t headed for a crash.\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>Current Homeowners Putting Their Homes Up for Sale\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nEven though \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F10\u002Fis-the-shifting-market-a-challenge-or-an-opportunity-for-homebuyers\u002F\">housing supply\u003C\u002Fa> is increasing this year, there’s still a limited number of existing homes available. The graph below helps illustrate this point. Based on the latest weekly \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.calculatedriskblog.com\u002F2022\u002F08\u002Fhousing-inventory-august-29th-update.html\">data\u003C\u002Fa>, inventory is up 27.8% compared to the same week last year (\u003Cem>shown in blue\u003C\u002Fem>). But compared to the same week in 2019 \u003Cem>(shown in the larger red bar),\u003C\u002Fem> it’s still down by 42.6%.\r\n\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F23093851\u002F20220824-MEM-Eng-1.png\">\u003Cimg class=\"aligncenter wp-image-47051\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F23093851\u002F20220824-MEM-Eng-1.png\" alt=\"Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash | Simplifying The Market \" width=\"650\" height=\"488\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\r\n\r\nSo, what does this mean? \u003Cstrong>Inventory is still historically low.\u003C\u002Fstrong> There simply aren’t enough homes on the market to cause prices to crash. There would need to be a flood of people getting ready to sell their houses in order to tip the scales toward a buyers’ market. And that level of activity simply isn’t there.\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>Newly Built Homes Coming onto the Market\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nThere’s also a lot of talk about what’s happening with newly built homes today, and that may make you wonder if we’re overbuilding. But home builders are actually slowing down their production right now. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at \u003Cem>Zonda, \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.entrepreneur.com\u002Farticle\u002F433166\">notes\u003C\u002Fa>:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“It has become a very competitive market for builders where they are trying to offload any standing inventory.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\r\nTo avoid repeating the overbuilding that happened leading up to the \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F02\u002F3-graphs-to-show-this-isnt-a-housing-bubble\u002F\">housing crisis\u003C\u002Fa>, builders are reacting to higher mortgage rates and softening buyer demand by slowing down their work. It’s a sign they’re being intentional about not overbuilding homes like they did during the bubble.\r\n\r\nAnd according to the latest data from the \u003Cem>U.S. Census\u003C\u002Fem>, at today’s current pace, we’re headed to build a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.census.gov\u002Fconstruction\u002Fnrc\u002Fpdf\u002Fnewresconst.pdf\">1.4 million homes\u003C\u002Fa> this year. While this will add more inventory to the market, it’s not on pace to create an oversupply because builders today are more cautious than the last time when they built more homes than the market could absorb.\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>Distressed Properties (Short Sales or Foreclosures) \u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nThe last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back in the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to secure a home loan they couldn’t truly afford. Today, \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F06\u002F01\u002Fwhy-home-loans-today-arent-what-they-were-in-the-past\u002F\">lending standards\u003C\u002Fa> are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.attomdata.com\u002Fnews\u002Fmarket-trends\u002Fforeclosures\u002Fattom-year-end-2021-u-s-foreclosure-market-report\u002F\">data\u003C\u002Fa> from \u003Cem>ATTOM Data Solutions\u003C\u002Fem> on properties with foreclosure filings to help paint the picture of how things have changed since the crash:\r\n\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F23093853\u002F20220824-MEM-Eng-2.png\">\u003Cimg class=\"aligncenter wp-image-47052\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F23093853\u002F20220824-MEM-Eng-2.png\" alt=\"Why Today’s Housing Inventory Proves the Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash | Simplifying The Market \" width=\"650\" height=\"488\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\r\n\r\nThis graph shows how in the time around the housing crash there were over one million foreclosure filings per year. As lending standards tightened since then, the activity started to decline. And in 2020 and 2021, the \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F08\u002Fwhy-the-forbearance-program-changed-the-housing-market\u002F\">forbearance program\u003C\u002Fa> was a further aid to help prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008.\r\n\r\nThat program was a game changer, giving homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications they didn’t have before. And \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.mba.org\u002Fnews-and-research\u002Fnewsroom\u002Fnews\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F15\u002Fshare-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-0.74-in-july\">data\u003C\u002Fa> on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. These are a few of the biggest reasons there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market.\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>Bottom Line\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nAlthough housing supply is growing this year, the market certainly isn’t anywhere near the inventory levels that would cause prices to drop significantly. That’s why inventory tells us the housing market won’t crash.","\r\nAlthough housing supply is growing this year, the market certainly isn’t anywhere near the inventory levels that would cause prices to drop significantly. That’s why inventory tells us the housing market won’t crash.","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F23093851\u002F20220824-MEM-Eng-1.png",false,[17,21],{"id":18,"name":19,"slug":20},5,"For Buyers","buyers",{"id":22,"name":23,"slug":24},6,"For Sellers","sellers","2022-08-24T10:00:15Z","2023-02-03T15:33:56Z",{"id":28,"slug":29,"title":30,"featuredImage":31,"publishedAt":32,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},4247,"what-sellers-need-to-know-in-todays-housing-market","What Sellers Need To Know in Today’s Housing Market","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F22152756\u002F20220823-KCM-Share.jpg","2022-08-23T10:00:35Z",{"id":34,"slug":35,"title":36,"featuredImage":37,"publishedAt":38,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},4249,"why-you-may-want-to-start-your-home-search-today","Why You May Want To Start Your Home Search Today","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2022\u002F08\u002F24123047\u002F20220825-KCM-Share.jpg","2022-08-25T10:00:09Z",{"cover":40,"open":41,"shareSpread":42},"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Buyers-Guide-Cover-original.png","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Buyers-Guide-Spread-original.png","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Buyers-Guide-Magazine-original.png",{"cover":44,"open":45,"shareSpread":46},"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Sellers-Guide-Cover-original.png","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Sellers-Guide-Spread-original.png","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Sellers-Guide-Magazine-original.png",[48,52,53,54,58,62,66,70,74,78,82,86,90,94,98,102,106,110,114,118,122,126,130,134,138,142,146,150,154,158],{"id":49,"name":50,"slug":51},1,"Uncategorized","uncategorized",{"id":18,"name":19,"slug":20},{"id":22,"name":23,"slug":24},{"id":55,"name":56,"slug":57},7,"Foreclosures","foreclosures",{"id":59,"name":60,"slug":61},8,"Infographics","infographics",{"id":63,"name":64,"slug":65},9,"Home Prices","home-prices",{"id":67,"name":68,"slug":69},11,"First-Time Buyers","first-time-buyers",{"id":71,"name":72,"slug":73},34,"Senior Market","senior-market",{"id":75,"name":76,"slug":77},35,"Mortgage Rates","mortgage-rates",{"id":79,"name":80,"slug":81},38,"Move-Up","move-up",{"id":83,"name":84,"slug":85},41,"For Sale by Owner","for-sale-by-owner",{"id":87,"name":88,"slug":89},42,"Featured","featured",{"id":91,"name":92,"slug":93},45,"New Construction","new-construction",{"id":95,"name":96,"slug":97},52,"Luxury \u002F Vacation","luxury--vacation",{"id":99,"name":100,"slug":101},53,"Rent vs. Buy","rent-vs-buy",{"id":103,"name":104,"slug":105},80,"Time-sensitive","time-sensitive",{"id":107,"name":108,"slug":109},81,"Outdated","outdated",{"id":111,"name":112,"slug":113},147,"Internal","internal",{"id":115,"name":116,"slug":117},148,"Do Not Autopost","do-not-autopost",{"id":119,"name":120,"slug":121},320,"Inventory","inventory",{"id":123,"name":124,"slug":125},321,"Agent Value","agent-value",{"id":127,"name":128,"slug":129},322,"Affordability","affordability",{"id":131,"name":132,"slug":133},323,"Buying Tips","buying-tips",{"id":135,"name":136,"slug":137},324,"Downsize","downsize",{"id":139,"name":140,"slug":141},325,"Economy","economy",{"id":143,"name":144,"slug":145},326,"Equity","equity",{"id":147,"name":148,"slug":149},327,"Forecasts","forecasts",{"id":151,"name":152,"slug":153},328,"Selling Tips","selling-tips",{"id":155,"name":156,"slug":157},339,"Expired\u002FWithdrawn\u002FCanceled","expiredwithdrawncanceled",{"id":159,"name":160,"slug":161},340,"Price It Right\u002FOverpricing","price-it-rightoverpricing"]