[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$f1v6lj3s7poids":3,"$fbwk2pqjjqsc7":38},{"item":4,"previous":26,"next":32},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"excerpt":9,"contentType":10,"featuredImage":11,"bannerImage":9,"body":12,"agentsBottomLine":13,"bodyImage":9,"isInfographic":14,"categories":15,"isVideo":14,"videoThumbnail":9,"videoSource":9,"publishedAt":24,"updatedAt":25},1940,"4-reasons-why-the-end-of-forbearance-will-not-lead-to-a-wave-of-foreclosures","4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures","With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won’t happen.","","blog","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2021\u002F07\u002F27160736\u002F20210728-KCM-Share.jpg","With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won’t happen.\u003C!--more-->\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nAfter the last housing crash, about \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Feconomics.cmail20.com\u002Ft\u002FViewEmail\u002Fd\u002F6DD5AA0E9F6529292540EF23F30FEDED\u002F5323CD85A2087AFD22947492D9797BBC\">9.3 million\u003C\u002Fa> households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.\r\n\r\nAs stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Many experts projected \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fblog.firstam.com\u002Feconomics\u002Fthis-time-its-different-why-a-wave-of-foreclosures-is-unlikely\">30% of all mortgage holders\u003C\u002Fa> would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.mba.org\u002F2021-press-releases\u002Fjuly\u002Fshare-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-350-percent\">down to 3.5%\u003C\u002Fa>.\r\n\r\nAs of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at  \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.blackknightinc.com\u002Fblog-posts\u002Fforbearances-flat-for-second-consecutive-week\u002F\">1,863,000\u003C\u002Fa>. That’s definitely a large number, but nowhere near 9.3 million.\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>2. Most of the 1.86M in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home \u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nOf the 1.86 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 87% have at least \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.blackknightinc.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2021\u002F06\u002FBKI_MM_Apr2021_Report.pdf\">10% equity\u003C\u002Fa> in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.\r\n\r\nThe remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.newyorkfed.org\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002Fhhdc.html\">annual foreclosure numbers\u003C\u002Fa> of the three years leading up to the pandemic:\r\n\u003Cul>\r\n \t\u003Cli>2017: 314,220\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n \t\u003Cli>2018: 279,040\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n \t\u003Cli>2019: 277,520\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\nThe probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nWhen foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nar.realtor\u002Fnewsroom\u002Fexisting-home-sales-expand-1-4-in-june\">3 months of inventory\u003C\u002Fa> on the market.\r\n\r\nAs Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the \u003Cem>National Association of Realtors\u003C\u002Fem> (NAR), \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmagazine.realtor\u002Fdaily-news\u002F2020\u002F11\u002F18\u002Fyun-real-estate-could-see-best-winter-ever\">explains\u003C\u002Fa> when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nJust last Friday, the White House released a \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.whitehouse.gov\u002Fbriefing-room\u002Fstatements-releases\u002F2021\u002F07\u002F23\u002Ffact-sheet-biden-administration-announces-additional-actions-to-prevent-foreclosures\u002F\">fact sheet\u003C\u002Fa> explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:\r\n\u003Cul>\r\n \t\u003Cli>\u003Cem>“For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that\u003Cstrong> allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower\u003C\u002Fstrong>.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n \t\u003Cli>\u003Cem>“The new steps the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) are announcing will aim to \u003Cstrong>provide homeowners with a roughly 25% reduction in borrowers’ monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes and build equity long-term\u003C\u002Fstrong>. This brings options for homeowners with mortgages backed by HUD, USDA, and VA closer in alignment with options for homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\nWhen evaluating the four reasons above, it’s clear there won’t be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down.\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>Bottom Line\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nAs Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm \u003Cem>Zelman & Associates\u003C\u002Fem>, \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tomferry.com\u002Four-podcast\u002Fexperience-91\u002F\">notes\u003C\u002Fa>:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is \u003Cstrong>about zero percent\u003C\u002Fstrong>.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>","\r\nAs Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm \u003Cem>Zelman & Associates\u003C\u002Fem>, \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tomferry.com\u002Four-podcast\u002Fexperience-91\u002F\">notes\u003C\u002Fa>:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is \u003Cstrong>about zero percent\u003C\u002Fstrong>.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>",false,[16,20],{"id":17,"name":18,"slug":19},7,"Foreclosures","foreclosures",{"id":21,"name":22,"slug":23},9,"Home Prices","home-prices","2021-07-28T10:00:29Z","2021-07-28T21:48:46Z",{"id":27,"slug":28,"title":29,"featuredImage":30,"publishedAt":31,"contentType":10,"isVideo":14},1937,"a-look-at-housing-supply-and-what-it-means-for-sellers","A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2021\u002F07\u002F26170003\u002F20210727-KCM-Share0.jpg","2021-07-27T10:00:10Z",{"id":33,"slug":34,"title":35,"featuredImage":36,"publishedAt":37,"contentType":10,"isVideo":14},1941,"home-sellers-there-is-an-extra-way-to-welcome-home-our-veterans","Home Sellers: There Is an Extra Way To Welcome Home Our Veterans","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2021\u002F07\u002F28112034\u002F20210729-KCM-Share.jpg","2021-07-29T10:00:32Z",[39,43,47,51,52,56,57,61,65,69,73,77,81,85,89,93,97,101,105,109,113,117,121,125,129,133,137,141,145,149],{"id":40,"name":41,"slug":42},1,"Uncategorized","uncategorized",{"id":44,"name":45,"slug":46},5,"For Buyers","buyers",{"id":48,"name":49,"slug":50},6,"For Sellers","sellers",{"id":17,"name":18,"slug":19},{"id":53,"name":54,"slug":55},8,"Infographics","infographics",{"id":21,"name":22,"slug":23},{"id":58,"name":59,"slug":60},11,"First-Time Buyers","first-time-buyers",{"id":62,"name":63,"slug":64},34,"Senior Market","senior-market",{"id":66,"name":67,"slug":68},35,"Mortgage Rates","mortgage-rates",{"id":70,"name":71,"slug":72},38,"Move-Up","move-up",{"id":74,"name":75,"slug":76},41,"For Sale by Owner","for-sale-by-owner",{"id":78,"name":79,"slug":80},42,"Featured","featured",{"id":82,"name":83,"slug":84},45,"New Construction","new-construction",{"id":86,"name":87,"slug":88},52,"Luxury \u002F Vacation","luxury--vacation",{"id":90,"name":91,"slug":92},53,"Rent vs. Buy","rent-vs-buy",{"id":94,"name":95,"slug":96},80,"Time-sensitive","time-sensitive",{"id":98,"name":99,"slug":100},81,"Outdated","outdated",{"id":102,"name":103,"slug":104},147,"Internal","internal",{"id":106,"name":107,"slug":108},148,"Do Not Autopost","do-not-autopost",{"id":110,"name":111,"slug":112},320,"Inventory","inventory",{"id":114,"name":115,"slug":116},321,"Agent Value","agent-value",{"id":118,"name":119,"slug":120},322,"Affordability","affordability",{"id":122,"name":123,"slug":124},323,"Buying Tips","buying-tips",{"id":126,"name":127,"slug":128},324,"Downsize","downsize",{"id":130,"name":131,"slug":132},325,"Economy","economy",{"id":134,"name":135,"slug":136},326,"Equity","equity",{"id":138,"name":139,"slug":140},327,"Forecasts","forecasts",{"id":142,"name":143,"slug":144},328,"Selling Tips","selling-tips",{"id":146,"name":147,"slug":148},339,"Expired\u002FWithdrawn\u002FCanceled","expiredwithdrawncanceled",{"id":150,"name":151,"slug":152},340,"Price It Right\u002FOverpricing","price-it-rightoverpricing"]