[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$fbp9tzspmo37q":3,"$ffeh0925h8cuz":51,"$fbwk2pqjjqsc7":55},{"item":4,"previous":39,"next":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"excerpt":9,"contentType":10,"featuredImage":11,"bannerImage":9,"body":12,"agentsBottomLine":13,"bodyImage":14,"isInfographic":15,"categories":16,"isVideo":15,"videoThumbnail":9,"videoSource":9,"publishedAt":37,"updatedAt":38},1072,"short-of-a-war-or-stock-market-crash","“Short of a war or stock market crash…”","This month, \u003Cem>Arch Mortgage Insurance\u003C\u002Fem> released their spring \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmi.archcapgroup.com\u002FPortals\u002F1\u002FDocuments\u002Fhammr\u002FHaMMR_Spring2018.pdf\">\u003Cem>Housing and Mortgage Market Review\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>.\u003C\u002Fem> The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and\u002For home prices would impact monthly payments this way:","","blog","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2018\u002F04\u002F25115052\u002F20180426-Share-STM.jpg","This month, \u003Cem>Arch Mortgage Insurance\u003C\u002Fem> released their spring \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmi.archcapgroup.com\u002FPortals\u002F1\u002FDocuments\u002Fhammr\u002FHaMMR_Spring2018.pdf\">\u003Cem>Housing and Mortgage Market Review\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>.\u003C\u002Fem> The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and\u002For home prices would impact monthly payments this way:\u003C!--more-->\r\n\u003Cul>\r\n \t\u003Cli>A 5% increase in home prices increases payments by roughly 5%\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n \t\u003Cli>A 1% rise in interest rates increases payments by roughly 13% or 14%\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\nThat begs the question…\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>What if both rates and prices increase as predicted?\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nThe report revealed:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“If interest rates and home prices rise by year-end in the ballpark of what most analysts are forecasting, monthly mortgage payments on a new home purchase could increase another 10–15%. That would make 2018 one of the worst full-year deteriorations in affordability for the past 25 years.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\r\nThe \u003Cem>percent increase\u003C\u002Fem> in mortgage payments would negatively impact affordability. But, how would affordability then compare to historic norms?\r\n\r\nPer the report:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“For the U.S. overall, even if affordability were to deteriorate as forecasted, affordability would still be reasonable by historic norms. That is because the percentage of pre-tax income needed to buy a typical home in 2019 would still be similar to the historical average during 1987–2004. Thus, nationally at least, even with higher rates and home prices, affordability will just revert to historical norms.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\r\n\u003Ch4>\u003Cstrong>What about home prices?\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh4>\r\nA decrease in affordability will cause some concern about home values. Won’t an increase in mortgage payments negatively impact the housing market? The report addressed this question:\r\n\u003Cblockquote>\u003Cem>“Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared...Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\r\nTo this point, \u003Cem>Arch Mortgage Insurance\u003C\u002Fem> also revealed their \u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Risk Index\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong> which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. The index is based on factors such as regional unemployment rates, affordability, net migration, housing starts and the percentage of delinquent mortgages.\r\n\r\nBelow is a map depicting their projections (the darker the blue, the lower the probability of a price decrease):\r\n\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2018\u002F04\u002F20180426-STM-ENG.jpeg\">\u003Cimg class=\"alignnone wp-image-37405\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2018\u002F04\u002F20180426-STM-ENG.jpeg\" alt=\"“Short of a war or stock market crash…” | Simplifying The Market\" width=\"650\" height=\"488\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>Bottom Line\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nIf interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.","\r\nIf interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2018\u002F04\u002F20180426-STM-ENG.jpeg",false,[17,21,25,29,33],{"id":18,"name":19,"slug":20},5,"For Buyers","buyers",{"id":22,"name":23,"slug":24},9,"Home Prices","home-prices",{"id":26,"name":27,"slug":28},11,"First-Time Buyers","first-time-buyers",{"id":30,"name":31,"slug":32},35,"Mortgage Rates","mortgage-rates",{"id":34,"name":35,"slug":36},38,"Move-Up","move-up","2018-04-26T10:00:08Z","2018-04-25T16:37:26Z",{"id":40,"slug":41,"title":42,"featuredImage":43,"publishedAt":44,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},1071,"new-study-shows-best-states-for-millennials","New Study Shows ‘Best States for Millennials’","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2018\u002F04\u002F12133433\u002F20180425-Share-STM.jpg","2018-04-25T10:00:32Z",{"id":46,"slug":47,"title":48,"featuredImage":49,"publishedAt":50,"contentType":10,"isVideo":15},1073,"existing-home-sales-grow-despite-low-inventory-infographic","Existing Home Sales Grow Despite Low Inventory [INFOGRAPHIC]","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.simplifyingthemarket.com\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2018\u002F04\u002F24163655\u002F20180427-Share-STM.jpg","2018-04-27T10:00:37Z",{"cover":52,"open":53,"shareSpread":54},"https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Buyers-Guide-Cover-original.png","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Buyers-Guide-Spread-original.png","https:\u002F\u002Ffiles.keepingcurrentmatters.com\u002FKeepingCurrentMatters\u002Fcontent\u002Fimages\u002F20260603\u002F2026-Summer-Buyers-Guide-Magazine-original.png",[56,60,61,65,69,73,74,75,79,80,81,85,89,93,97,101,105,109,113,117,121,125,129,133,137,141,145,149,153,157],{"id":57,"name":58,"slug":59},1,"Uncategorized","uncategorized",{"id":18,"name":19,"slug":20},{"id":62,"name":63,"slug":64},6,"For Sellers","sellers",{"id":66,"name":67,"slug":68},7,"Foreclosures","foreclosures",{"id":70,"name":71,"slug":72},8,"Infographics","infographics",{"id":22,"name":23,"slug":24},{"id":26,"name":27,"slug":28},{"id":76,"name":77,"slug":78},34,"Senior Market","senior-market",{"id":30,"name":31,"slug":32},{"id":34,"name":35,"slug":36},{"id":82,"name":83,"slug":84},41,"For Sale by Owner","for-sale-by-owner",{"id":86,"name":87,"slug":88},42,"Featured","featured",{"id":90,"name":91,"slug":92},45,"New Construction","new-construction",{"id":94,"name":95,"slug":96},52,"Luxury \u002F Vacation","luxury--vacation",{"id":98,"name":99,"slug":100},53,"Rent vs. Buy","rent-vs-buy",{"id":102,"name":103,"slug":104},80,"Time-sensitive","time-sensitive",{"id":106,"name":107,"slug":108},81,"Outdated","outdated",{"id":110,"name":111,"slug":112},147,"Internal","internal",{"id":114,"name":115,"slug":116},148,"Do Not Autopost","do-not-autopost",{"id":118,"name":119,"slug":120},320,"Inventory","inventory",{"id":122,"name":123,"slug":124},321,"Agent Value","agent-value",{"id":126,"name":127,"slug":128},322,"Affordability","affordability",{"id":130,"name":131,"slug":132},323,"Buying Tips","buying-tips",{"id":134,"name":135,"slug":136},324,"Downsize","downsize",{"id":138,"name":139,"slug":140},325,"Economy","economy",{"id":142,"name":143,"slug":144},326,"Equity","equity",{"id":146,"name":147,"slug":148},327,"Forecasts","forecasts",{"id":150,"name":151,"slug":152},328,"Selling Tips","selling-tips",{"id":154,"name":155,"slug":156},339,"Expired\u002FWithdrawn\u002FCanceled","expiredwithdrawncanceled",{"id":158,"name":159,"slug":160},340,"Price It Right\u002FOverpricing","price-it-rightoverpricing"]